Blog

Most predictions being nothing more than relatively conservative assumptions on the future based on future trends... They are simple to generate, just take 2 trends put them together and tada!

Trite example 1
Trend A: Gangnam Style is taking over the world
Trend B: Geeks love to play with Robots
Prediction:  The number of robots dancing gangnam style will increase in the coming months

Trite example 2
Trend A: The economic recession means traditional investments have poor returns, and increasingly clever investors look at tech for investment opportunities
Trend B: The deal flow of mobile companies is still too limited for VC's liking
Prediction: The number of accelerator programs and incubators will continue to grow!

So go grab from a list of trends and build your own predictions. So let's play the game... the more uncorrelated the trends, the more fun!

Trend A: M2M and Internet Of Things are increasingly popular among developers
Trend B: ASO (Application Store...

It seems like I just finished writing my 2012 predictions, but the year has flown by and here we are again! As usual, let’s review what I had predicted a year ago:

1. One of the major smartphone platforms sees the sun set on it. – Check. As Sam pointed out in the comments of my previous post, this happened before 2012 even started ☺

2. Big-name companies start to shut down (or at least refocus) their developer programs. – Check, with moves such as Telefonica and Verizon making some big changes to their app stores.

3. 2012 will be the year of geographic diversity. – Check. I made my first two trips to China this year, and the level of interest from Chinese developers to reach western markets, and for western companies to get in to China was staggeringly high. Likewise, we’re starting to see more and more localized apps emerge as developers go global.

4. Mobile ad networks start to bite the dust as the market enters a phase of consolidation. – Hmm, not sure I saw a lot of...

This is my first predictions blog at WIP, but not my first ever, having done something similar a year ago.

I think the most exciting thing about 2012 was the number of tablets that have been sold and the opportunity for developers with a real lack of compelling apps for Android tablets. The tablet and phablet space is truly buzzing and it will be interesting to see how much this will affect PC sales in the next few years.

1. The Internet of Things will become mainstream

This year saw some pretty amazing connected hardware both on Kickstarter (SmartThings, LIFX) and from established companies like Belkin, Nike and Phillips. The most exciting thing about these products is that they offer programming interfaces for developers. This opens up a whole new world of opportunities. How about when you walk in your door, the TV turns on, the kettle boils and the lights come on or how about controlling your power sockets and appliances from an app on your phone anywhere in the world?

As a new WIPster, I’ve just come from a long summer sabbatical where I was relatively unplugged and completely unfettered. It’s amazing what can change in a short 4 months if you’re not paying attention. But the world keeps turning, regardless of whether RIM finally releases 10 or not.   As far as my big predictions, the most important has to be an upcoming Star Wars movie. Since the big sale to Disney there’s been wide speculation and my prediction is that’s all going to be put to rest at the upcoming Emerald City Comicon. Did you hear Carrie Fisher is going! Stay tuned for that and if you haven’t got your tickets yet to Emerald City Comicon, well you should.

But as far as mobile goes, Blackberry 10 is coming and I don’t think anyone is really holding their breath. There will be plenty of time for developers to assess whether they will adopt or not but it will continue to be a long slow battle for RIM. Android and iOS will continue to dominate, with Windows taking up the slack...

As the rest of the team predicted, it's going to be a crazy year of evolution in the mobile world, especially for consumers. As I watch my parents socialize with their peers about which apps they've downloaded lately, I feel that this quote from last year rings even truer this year: "We are reaching the sweet spot as the penetration of a [mobile] technology reaches [the masses]". It's a sweet time to be in the industry for sure. Here are some specifics I see happening this year:

1. Death of the 'smartphone'
   There was a time when you had to be somebody 'important' to own a smartphone. It was a status symbol aptly named as a phone for 'smarter' people who needed to be more connected than everybody else. Those days are gone. Not only have smartphones warmed up to the masses, but we have more ways to communicate with one another than we ever have. 'Phone calling ' is now only of the many features, and its usage is on a downward trend. In so many ways, it's not just smarter...

As it’s time for predications and reflections I always go back to my previous predictions to see how I made out.  And contrary to the belief of Strand Consulting, they are not the only ones to publish their previous years, so you can see how I made out too! 

Here are the highlights and  links to those predictions:
2011 – Year of APIs, Growth of Discovery, Less BlackBerry, Less Android, More iPhone
2010– a Thibaut/Caroline combo here.  I declared:  More Android, More BlackBerry, Less iPhone, More Innovation/More funding
2009 Tough economic times, Access the new open, Less US centric, yet more fragmentation...
2008  The Rise of Tools, M&A, and ‘Open’
2007  More fragmentation, newbie developers, Usability; and Location, Location, Location.

It was pretty right on for last year, especially the bit about API growth and where I predicated More iPhone, iPhone being the easy choice for developers as  I saw “ developers abandoning BlackBerry and Android and heading back to...

Happy New year from all of us at WIP - Carlo, Harper, Teresa, Thibaut and me - all the best for a stellar 2011! 

We look forward to working with you and meeting you online or around the world at the many events we all attend. 

First up is CES in Las Vegas, starting with the AT&T Developer Summit on Wednesday, January 5.  We are hosting the very cool WIP Connector Lego Challenge - guaranteed fun, good networking and of course prizes!!   Carlo, Teresa and I will be there.   You'll find Thibaut at MIDEM, January 22 - 26th in Cannes for this big industry music show.  There seems to be alot of Contest Deadlines up in January, so be sure to check them out in our Mobile Community Calendar.

If you haven't yet, check out our Predictions - all of them.  Our team of five, plus one from my interview with Ed Schmidt from ATT give you six pieces of sage advice to help you plan for 2011!

- Caroline's:  Growth, Expectations and Upsets
- Harper's: A Look Ahead at 2011
- Teresa's:  App...

As I peer into my crystal ball I see a year of more growth coupled with higher expectations for mobile along with a few upsets along the way.

The Growth

If you didn’t rest over the holidays, don’t expect to relax anytime soon no matter where you fit in the industry.  We will continue to see more devices, more demand for apps, and more demand for developers. 

It was March when we declared 2010 The Year of the Mobile Developer.  Developers were in hot demand and were finally being embraced publically and vocally as a key piece of the mobile ecosystem.   

With that, we will continue to see huge growth in the number of mobile developers entering the scene.  I do think we will see a combination of really newbie/webby developers, given the rise in toolssuch as AppMobi.   As mobile has now become ‘mainstream’ we will also see more traditional software folks entering mobile.  Expect more development tools and enablers (analytics, advertising etc) on the scene too.  Choice...

Over the course of the next year I feel that you have as much of a chance of predicting the stock market as where the mobile industry is going to go. Yes, we all know dual-core smartphones and LTE are on the way but the unknown is how this technology is all going to be used. Here are my best overall predictions (guesses) for the upcoming year.

1)   Android – Apple – Blackberry – Nokia – WP7 (In that order)

2)   As more devices enter the market and faster network speeds are delivered to the consumer, developers who want to get their product to more phones in a more timely fashion will start taking advantage of web apps. 

3)   This last one is a prediction as well as something I hope for. Earlier this year we saw Microsoft embracing the ChevronWP7 unlocking tool by striking a deal with the developers to integrate it into the WP7 OS. With Android and Apple ahead of the pack, the rest of the OSes will need to make some dramatic changes to do their best at...

Blaug : The mobile prediction octopus.

Exclusively with us this year for the usual end of year predictions!

But before I get into it I was bragging last year about providing measurable predictions... let's see the results!!

1) Android saves Google in Europe in the face of increasing legal & regulatory pressures. 

small tick!!!  Definitely a shaping topic this year... as the EU flexes its regulatory muscle but Google' (lawyers) resist well... and Europe (aka EUOS) uses subsidies to fight back with WEBINOS and SYMBEOS

2) Android becomes the de facto standard for enterprise application and devices 

small tick!!!  A hotly debated subject, with a fight of figures... summary is roughly that enterprise Android growth (~30% of new acquisition in 2010)  has outpaced overall Android's already astonishing growth (~18% new handset market share in 2010)

3)The mobile developer / marketing scene reorganizes

small tick!!!  Just because this one is definitely one of the...